Prayuth Chan-ocha

PRAYUTH CHAN-OCHA
Should we fear this man?
By THE NATION
Published on January 30, 2010

Why, all of a sudden, does the little-known deputy Army chief attract so much political attention? Poised to replace General Anupong Paochinda and having four years to steer the Army, a coup must be the furthest thing from General Prayuth Chan-ocha's mind at the moment. Avudh Panananda reports

Although General Prayuth Chan-ocha is known to his colleagues as a mild-mannered and staid soldier, the deputy Army chief is being seen - given the backdrop of political turbulence - to have a pivotal role in a coup plot that could alter the course of Thai political history.

Regardless of whether the storyline is a figment of the imagination or an open secret, Prayuth is the man of the hour, with friends and foes alike trying to stake a claim to him as being their own kind, or threatening to destroy him if he refuses to go their way.

The red shirts and a large number of Pheu Thai MPs link him to a coup plot. Their argument is that Prayuth wants to have the door slammed shut on a possible comeback by fugitive ex-prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

Proponents of this scenario include Pheu Thai's Jatuporn Promphan, Nisit Sinthuprai, Suchart Lainamngern and Surapong Towijakchaikul.

At the other end of the opposition spectrum, a powerful Pheu Thai Party clique - led by Chavalit Yongchaiyudh and Chalerm Yoobamrung - has portrayed Prayuth in a different light, harbouring hope of wooing him as an ally.

The Democrats, meanwhile, praise him as a professional soldier dedicated to toeing the line of the government team.

In the eyes of the top brass, Prayuth is the designated heir to Army chief General Anupong Paochinda. Yet the public knows and hears very little about the general who is poised to carry the Army's torch.

Within the Army ranks, Prayuth is a respected commanding officer who has been keeping a low profile.

As a graduate of Pre-Cadet Class 12, Prayuth made a wise choice early in his career by nurturing his professional ties with upperclassman Anupong from Pre-Cadet Class 10.

The two took care to watch each other's backs when they served as the Queen's royal guards in the elite 21st Infantry Regiment in Chon Buri.

When Anupong got a career boost to become the commander of the 2nd Infantry Division in Prachin Buri, Prayuth followed suit like a shadow. There the two were doubly lucky to fall under the good grace of the then Army chief, General Prawit Wongsuwan, who is presently defence minister.

After Anupong received his due promotion as the commanding general of the 1st Army Region, Prayuth again rode on his coattails to climb the military ladder.

Between 2001 and 2005, Thaksin was at the height of his power. Soldiers, particularly his fellow graduates from Pre-Cadet Class 10, were swayed to defend his authoritarian leadership.

Under the military traditions on assignment review, the rise of Pre-Cadet Class 10 automatically eclipsed the careers of those graduated from two classes below, including Prayuth.

If the September 19, 2006 had not happened, Anupong would have been promoted upstairs and Prayuth would have faded into oblivion, as Thaksin had already sensed their wavering loyalty.

The power seizure caused an about-turn of fate in favour of the two. Anupong was catapulted into the centre of power and he brought along his top lieutenant, Prayuth.

During the coup and its aftermath, Anupong was in a precarious position. He could not count on his classmates, as most were linked to Thaksin. He had to wield his clout through Pre-Cadet Class 9's General Montri Sangkhasap.

As the junta was about to pick the Army chief in 2007, Montri joined the race. Prayuth had the rare opportunity to shine by rallying his classmates, who were then division commanders, to back Anupong's leadership.

The Anupong-Prayuth alliance goes way back, and their mutual support is seen as the anchor that makes the Army the way it currently is, both politically and militarily.

With less than nine months to go to Anupong's retirement, the spotlight has obviously been turned on Prayuth. Born in 1954, he would have four years to steer the Army before himself reaching mandatory retirement age. And his long tenure might translate into wide-ranging consequences in the political landscape.

The red shirts and the yellow shirts are both making a lot of noise about Prayuth because they want to smoke him out to show his true colours.

Several coup scenarios, as churned out by the pro-Thaksin camp, have been designed to drive a wedge in the Anupong-Prayuth alliance. A case in point is Jatuporn and Nisit both claiming Prayuth was spearheading a coup plot without the backing of Anupong.

Red-shirt leader Weng Tojirakarn gave his take on a coup, viewing it as an opportunity to trigger an upheaval leading to a complete transformation of the political scene. Under his scenario, the coup would speed up Thaksin's comeback.

However, coalition politicians and the yellow shirts beg to differ. A coup, if it happened, would root out Thaksin's supporters and put him in permanent exile. Although the Democrats stand firm in opposing any attempts at grabbing power, their consolation is that Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva is said to be on the shortlist to carry on as premier should there be a coup.

The top brass has reportedly made a routine assessment of the situation. Several generals voiced concern that unfolding events could lead to a political meltdown.

The key words here are "political meltdown". Unless this happens, Prayuth will remain on the fence and is free to respond with the scripted answer of "there is no coup".