Phongthep Thepkanjana

Is Thaksin's love affair with HK over? Former Thai PM has used the city as a base, but the row over a lunch date may show he has outstayed his welcome, writes Greg Torode
8 March 2009
South China Morning Post

Ousted Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has always felt comfortable in Hong Kong. In the tough months after Thailand's generals forced him from power in September 2006, the city was a particularly important bolt-hole. He spent long periods in England, where he owns apartments in London and bought and sold Premier League soccer club Manchester City, and had spells in Dubai, Tokyo and Beijing. But Hong Kong has offered him something else - close proximity to the nation he once envisaged leading for two decades or more.

Hunkering down in the splendour of Hong Kong's top hotels during his usually low-key trips, Thaksin would meet Thai political cronies by the dozen, plotting strategy and funding for the parties acting as his post-coup proxies and trying to keep friendly coalitions together.

Before the election of December 2007, there were several such meetings. After his allies in the now disbanded People Power Party proved he remained popular by winning that poll, there were fat celebrations in Hong Kong.

He used the city, too, for meetings with Washington-based lobbyists and publicity strategists as he plotted how to stay in the political limelight - which is all-important if he is to counter the growing sense that the Thai establishment now has Thaksin right where they want him: out of the country and, increasingly, out of sight.

There have been banking, shopping and time spent networking with business connections dating back to his pre-politics days as a billionaire telecoms tycoon and one of Thailand's richest men. Being ethnically Chinese, Thaksin has often told aides he feels at home in Hong Kong. When he divorced his wife, Pojaman - a move still widely seen as strategic, rather than heartfelt - the couple chose to do it at the Thai consulate in Hong Kong.

However, the events of the past week suggest that the city may not be Thaksin's bolt-hole for too much longer. He is on the run from a two-year prison sentence imposed in Thailand, and Britain and Japan will not give him fresh visas. Hong Kong is not at that point yet, but the situation has suddenly become more complicated as his opponents attempt to draw Beijing into the fray.

Thaksin may also have invited trouble by his recent actions. His plan to give a speech at the Foreign Correspondents Club in Central last Monday prompted a swift, and cunning, riposte from Thailand's new prime minister, Abhisit Vejjajiva - a long-time adversary. Days before Thaksin was due to give his speech about the economic crisis and the political uncertainty in Thailand, Mr Abhisit expressed his concerns and raised the prospect of talking to Beijing about his extradition. Thailand has an extradition treaty with China but not yet with Hong Kong - although, as we reveal today, one is in the pipeline.

"It is within the personal rights of the former prime minister to use any venue for making his speech," Mr Abhisit said, his habitual caution to the fore. "But the Thai government will clarify and rebut any derogatory statements."

Then he added: "We will look into any possible legal channels." Suddenly Thaksin's move looked like a step too far. He promptly postponed the speech at the FCC. He has given press conferences in Hong Kong in the past, but not since he was sentenced in absentia in October on abuse-of-power charges related to a land deal while he was in power in 2003.

In recent months he has taken to making live phone-in "appearances" at rallies of his supporters across Thailand - he is due to give one today to a crowd in Ayutthaya - but never reveals from where he is calling. Mr Abhisit's government may not have taken any formal steps towards extradition yet, but he has sent a clear political signal, Thai analysts say.

While it is true that Beijing has always got on well with Thaksin - when he left Thailand for the last time, it was to attend last summer's Olympic Games - those ties could carry a cost in its dealings with future Thai governments.

Hong Kong has for decades allowed a number of politicians and activists to use the city as a temporary stage, but this tolerance does not extend to visitors who risk embarrassing their host (no place in the world can be expected to stand for that). Respected Thai political scientist Thitinan Pongsudhirak said Thaksin, a cunning player himself, appeared increasingly desperate and may have overreached himself this time.

"By playing the China card, Abhisit is sending a very strong warning to Thaksin," said Dr Thitinan, director of the Institute of Security and International Studies at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University. "Beijing operates in far too nuanced a way to issue a public warning - and they don't have to {hellip} Thaksin will understand the risks that Abhisit has outlined.

"It does help feed the perception that Mr Thaksin is running out of options and running out of time."

When Thaksin announced last Sunday that he would not fly to Hong Kong to give the speech, he said: "I did not want my presence to affect bilateral relations." Phongthep Thepkanjana, a spokesman in Thailand for Thaksin, said his boss still felt comfortable visiting Hong Kong in future and they had received no warnings from Beijing or the city's government.

Thaksin has arranged to deliver his speech via a satellite hook-up at the FCC on Thursday. Giving his speech this way will be less provocative than doing so in person.

If Thaksin intended to cause the maximum pain to Mr Abhisit, he could have not selected a better day than last Monday. Last weekend saw Mr Abhisit host the nine fellow heads of government of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations for the bloc's annual summit. Thaksin's move was already hogging the headlines as Mr Abhisit engaged in his first major international outing.

Given that Mr Abhisit has not been elected Thailand's leader (his Democrat Party forged a ruling coalition after Thai courts disbanded a Thaksin-friendly government in December), the summit was widely seen as a cornerstone of efforts to bolster Mr Abhisit's credibility.

While the FCC had issued a long-standing invitation for Thaksin to speak, club president Ernst Herb confirmed the date for the speech was worked out by "mutual arrangement".

Even if, as it now appears, Mr Abhisit has not emerged the winner from this episode, the timing of their skirmish was equally bad for Thaksin. Thailand's political salons are filled with talk that he is struggling to fund opposition operations in the way he once could. That Mr Abhisit was able to form a government in part because of the defection of a few of Thaksin's former allies shows the difficulties the former prime minister is facing.

He remains immensely wealthy, though not quite as rich as many believed. Just how much money he has is difficult to estimate, but he is reported to have taken a hit from the global financial crisis.

Thaksin's nemesis, Thai Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij, has said he believes the core of Thaksin's wealth is tied up in the US$2.3 billion frozen in Thai bank accounts since the coup.

Most of that money came from the controversial, tax-free sale in 2006 of his Shin Corporation phone, satellite and internet empire to Singapore state investment arm Temasek Holdings. Mr Korn, formerly a leading investment banker, was in opposition at the time as deputy head of the Democrat Party, and led the charge to investigate Thaksin's finances as criticism of his excesses mounted.

One asset still listed in the family ledger is the three-storey, 3,313 sq ft home at 19 King's Park Hill in Ho Man Tin. Bought three months ago in his youngest daughter's name for HK$45 million, it has been largely deserted since.
"We've only seen Mr Thaksin once, and not for more than a month," said staff in the gated development. "It is only gardeners and maids who visit. The place is completely shut up."

If Thaksin had been eyeing the leafy development as a long-term home, that plan may now be considerably more risky than before.

Steadily, Thailand's royal, military and old-money establishment - which so fears the man who was the country's most popular elected leader - is tightening the noose.