Bangkok Post
Finally, the country can breathe a sigh of relief. Thailand has escaped a much-anticipated coup d'etat despite the presence of all necessary precursors for a putsch, ranging from a political crisis, clashes between Thais of different political beliefs, to bloodshed and the blockade at Suvarnabhumi and Don Mueang airports by protesters of the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD).
The People Power party-led government even went so far as to declare a state of emergency. The then government seemed prepared to mobilise police to disperse protesters despite opposition from military leaders. The top brass' opposition to such dispersal prompted some key members in the cabinet to recommend that then prime minister Somchai Wongsawat dismiss the army chief.
Even so, the military leaders did not stage what was clearly anticipated: the conventional kind of coup d'etat.
However, the roles some military leaders have played recently are viewed and criticised as probably a new form of intervention not unlike a coup.
It's true the military did not roll out the tanks and parade soldiers in the streets to oust the elected government. It was because they were aware that if they did so they would face a strong protest from the Thai people and the international community. They'd already learned it the hard way from the Sept 19 coup in 2006.
As a result, some new tricks were tried. One of these saw the whole pack of armed forces chiefs appearing on television, pressuring the prime minister to resign. Their call for Mr Somchai's resignation was dubbed an on-screen coup as it was seen as a form of putsch without weapons.
Another attempt at a silent putsch allegedly took place when, at the height of the PAD's airport siege, Gen Anupong Paojinda in his capacity as chairman of a joint-committee monitoring the political situation, suggested publicly that Mr Somchai dissolve parliament.
Despite all the nudging, former PM Somchai did not pay heed to what Gen Anupong suggested.
Eventually, it was the Constitution Court which eased the political tension by dissolving the ruling PPP as well as banning its executives from politics for five years.
The verdict resulted in the termination of Mr Somchai's premiership, a change of circumstances that led to the PAD leaders' decision to lift their marathon protest.
When the PPP clique was resurrected under the newly-founded Puea Thai party and tried to form a new government with its former coalition partners, Gen Anupong reportedly tried another trick.
During this power vacuum the army chief was reported to have become the key man seeking an agreement from the former PPP's coalition partners to switch their support to the opposition Democrat party and form the next coalition government.
Amid intense lobbying by both Puea Thai and Democrat camps, many key members of the coalition parties and key factions within them were seen visiting Gen Anupong at his official residence in the compound of the First Infantry Regiment off Vibhavadi Rangsit Road, both in small and large groups.
Among these special visitors were reportedly Newin Chidchob and Sora-at Klinprathum, two faction leaders in the now dissolved PPP. The two men were seen at Gen Anupong's residence on Dec 4 along with Gen Prayuth Chan-ocha, the army's chief-of-staff.
Later, Pradit Phataraprasit, secretary-general of Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana party reportedly called on Gen Prayuth at his residence, also in the regiment compound.
In the meantime, Democrat secretary-general Suthep Thaugsuban kept in touch with Gen Anupong by phone. Mr Suthep and Gen Anupong became acquaintances when the Council for National Security was in power.
On Dec 6, shortly before the Democrat's plan to form a new coalition government was announced, Mr Suthep reportedly led a group of key members of the Democrats' prospective coalition partners to meet Gen Anupong at the residence of former army chief Gen Prawit Wongsuwan, who is well respected by Gen Anupong.
Even though the meetings were supposed to be secret events, they ended up in the open because of the unusual manner of the visits.
Suddenly, Gen Anupong was viewed by the media as the "coalition formation manager".
Army spokesman Col Sansern Kaewkumnerd, however, denied Gen Anupong had any role in convincing the former coalition partners to defect from Puea Thai camp. He conceded, though, that some politicians had sought the army chief's advice.
One of Gen Anupong's close aides said the general was not meddling in politics. He was simply doing what could be done to help restore peace in the country in his capacity as army chief.
Whether or not Gen Anupong has had any direct or roundabout influence in the coalition formation attempts, his residence is likely to become a place for political consultations among people in power in the future. It probably surprised no one when the army chief had the wall surrounding his house rebuilt. It now stands two metres high and blocks proceedings inside his residence from prying eyes.
Ever since he took office, Gen Anupong has repeatedly declared that he is a professional soldier who would not get involved in politics.
But no matter whether politics has a way of finding him or whether he can't seem to resist its pull, it now seems the army chief is right in the middle of it.
Some people may say Gen Anupong's role in the recent political development is tantamount to a coup in disguise; others including the army chief himself would deny this.
Whatever the case, the result is that it seems certain now that both Gen Anupong and Gen Prayuth have pinned the future of their military careers with the next Democrat-led coaltiion government.
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