Anupong's Army

If there is a coup, it can only go ahead with army chief Anupong's blessing

The Nation

8 February 2010

Avudh Panananda

The spotlight seems to have turned on to graduates of the Chulachomklao Royal Military Academy Class 31 as rumours about coup plots continue doing the rounds.

Colonel Apirat Kongsompong, commander of 11th Infantry Regiment, made waves after he led a "boot-thumping" campaign to demonstrate support for Army chief General Anupong Paochinda. His colleagues from Class 31, who now have control of combat regiments, backed this move, with 17 battalion and regimental commanders taking part in the campaign.

The rally, held under the pretext of disciplining red-shirt ally Maj-General Khattiya "Seh Daeng" Sawasdipol, saw Apirat and other key commanders proclaiming loyalty to Anupong. However, with the ongoing political turbulence, many see this loud pledging of allegiance as a show of military force, triggering concerns about the armed forces meddling in politics again.

Looking back at the 17 coups of the past, one realises that the Army is no stranger to Thai politics. During the period of half-baked democracy in the 1970s to 1990s, the Classes 1, 5 and 7 rose up and made their presence felt in the political scene , something that is still fresh in many memories.

Class 1 graduates took advantage of the Cold War to catapult to power. This class had several powerful generals, including General Chavalit Yongchiyudh, who later became prime minister.

Class 5 graduates took over the armed forces before staging a coup in 1991, and it wasn't until the bloody Black May in 1992 that they were forced to retreat disgracefully.

Class 7 graduates once took control of nearly 40 combat battalions, becoming the powerhouse to engineer the coups of 1976 and 1978. They were also involved in two failed coups and a number of plots that had to be aborted.

Now the question on everybody's mind is whether Class 31 will follow the example of previous coup makers. Though only two officers from Class 31 have been promoted to the rank of major general, the class has great potential for advancement. Especially since a few key Class 31 graduates backed Anupong wholeheartedly in the 2006 coup.

A few months before ousting then-prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, Anupong and then Army chief General Sonthi Boonyaratglin managed to purge 215 key commanders seen as being pro-Thaksin.

Apirat was personally picked by Anupong to lead the 11th Infantry Regiment, an elite unit that can make or break a coup.

The men who rose along with Apirat included the 1st Infantry Regiment's Colonel Natthawat Aknibutr; the 2nd Infantry Regiment's Colonel Kukiart Srinakha and the 1st Artillery Regiment's Colonel Kritdanai Itthimonthon. Commanders of combat units in Bangkok, Prachin Buri, Lop Buri and Chon Buri, deemed vital to the coup, were rotated ahead of the event.

Now, quite a few officers from Class 31 are waiting for promotions before Anupong's mandatory retirement in September.

Apirat and his three fellow commanders have always stood by Anupong, while his two leading classmates, Maj-General Nat Intharacharoen and Maj-General Atthaporn Bowsuwan, are close aides to Defence Minister Prawit Wongsuwan.

In any coup scenario, it should be clear that the interest of Class 31 graduates lies with the incumbent military leaders. The existing power structure in the Army is a direct outcome of the 2006 coup; there was a complete revamp, particularly in combat units, to rid the Army of Thaksin's influence.

Since 2007, Anupong managed to consolidate his power to ensure his legacy and would obviously not allow any ambitious soldier to topple him by undermining his authority.

At the top of the command structure are Anupong, Prawit, deputy Army chief General Prayuth Chan-ocha and 1st Army Region commander Lt-General Kanit Sapitak , the "Eastern Tigers" who made their mark while serving in the 21st Infantry Regiment in Chon Buri and the 2nd Infantry Division in Prachin Buri.

Virtually every commander in regional, divisional, regimental and battalion divisions has been vetted and handpicked by either Anupong or one of his three allies.

In the latest assignment review for battalion commanders last year, Anupong had the final say in units crucial to leading a coup.

Lt-Colonel Sanyalak Tangsiri was promoted to the rank of colonel and became Anupong's aide de camp. He passed on the position of commander to the 4th Cavalry Battalion, an indispensable unit for a coup to be successful, to Lt-Colonel Chinnasorn Ruangsuk, said to be a close aide of Anupong and Prawit.

In every reshuffle, Anupong made sure he generously rewarded the commanders who backed him during the 2006 coup, and promoted only those who had undying loyalty to key combat units.

He also made sure officers from different classes were also promoted so it didn't look like just one class was dominating the command at any given level.

Class 31 graduates may be on a fast-track to assignment review but they certainly don't have a majority control on the command structure like Class 7 used to have. Now, control at the battalion level is shared among graduates from Classes 36 to 39.

Based on how Anupong assigns the jobs among his men, it is very unlikely that a coup could take place without his blessing. This is because there are no charismatic rivals or cliques of soldiers that have enough power to usurp his mandate and mobilise troops.